On a Friday in late October, O'Rourke was back in El Paso, doing the work of a congressman in his district. That morning he'd presided over a ceremony to rededicate the federal courthouse to R. E. Thomason, a former Democratic congressman and district court judge. In the afternoon, he departed downtown, driving southeast on Texas Highway 375, winding just above the dry bed of the Rio Grande and the high chain-link fences on both banks that delineate the U.S.-Mexico border. A little before 2:00 p.m., he arrived at Del Valle High School to host the eighty-fifth town hall of his congressional career.

Since O'Rourke entered Congress, in January 2013, he's held at least one town hall per month, and while the events are well-organized, they're appealingly scruffy for anyone whose sole experience of a politician responding to everyday Americans comes from quadrennial presidential TV spectacles. Constituents line up to tell the congressman about their problems at work and the aspirations of their children. They ask him arcane, rambling questions. Sometimes they rise simply to rant. The production values are low: at Del Valle, O'Rourke was bathed in sallow light and stood in front of a set for the school's production of Little Shop of Horrors, a "Scrivello DDS" sign framing one side of the stage.

O'Rourke is a Gen Xer who seems engineered to appeal to young voters, but he's also a congressman whose district includes the headquarters of Fort Bliss. Veterans' issues have become his bread and butter, an area where, even as a member of the minority in a do-nothing Congress, he can actually get something done. And as O'Rourke finished summarizing his recent Washington business to his constituents at the town hall, it was mostly veterans who rushed to the front of the aisles for their chance to speak with their congressman.

One of the veterans was a grandmother of four named Lisa Turner, and once she'd inched her wheelchair to the microphone, she wasted little time before picking a fight. She was a Second Amendment absolutist and a proud NRA supporter, and she decried the "hullabaloo" around armor-piercing bullets and marveled at the fact that people would blame gun violence on guns themselves, not the "idiots" who pulled the trigger.

"All I can say is stay away from my constitutional rights," she told O'Rourke. "I put my life on the line for this country for that."

O'Rourke listened patiently, thanked her, and then pushed back. "We don't have a greater proportion of idiots in this country than they do in other countries, and yet our rate of gun violence and gun deaths and gun suicide is far greater than any other country in the world." Then he told her he needed to move on to the next question.

Turner wasn't satisfied. "There is somewhere between 80 and 100 million gun owners, 300 million guns . . . If guns were the problem, you would have known about it by now," she called out. "It's not the guns—"

"You're not hearing me," O'Rourke said.

Turner was not. "We do not outlaw cars because somebody gets drunk and drives!"

Turner seemed eager to continue the discussion, but the congressman cut her off and called on a woman waiting at the mic in the other aisle. Turner turned and moved toward the back of the auditorium.

At the end of the event, I found Turner near the stage, talking with O'Rourke staffer Cynthia Cano. Turner told me that she'd been to most of O'Rourke's town halls. "He'll tell you I'm a royal pain in the butt," she said. But she had come to respect him.

"We have issues that we disagree on," she said, smiling, "but I hope he beats Cruz. I think he can go all the way." She meant the presidency.

"We have issues that we disagree on," she said, smiling, "but I hope he beats Cruz. I think he can go all the way." She meant the presidency.

A few years after O'Rourke moved back to El Paso, he committed himself to what his friend Susie Byrd calls "the El Paso project." The city had long been characterized by brain drain, and census data would show that El Paso was exporting many of its most highly educated young people. "The pathway was 'Do really well in high school, go away to college, and don't look back,' " Byrd told me.

O'Rourke, Byrd, and a growing generation of civically engaged twenty- and thirty-somethings sought to buck the trend, and soon after O'Rourke returned, he launched his own company, Stanton Street. The business was two-pronged. One side built and maintained websites at a profit (and still operates today under different ownership). The other side, which lasted only a few years, published a newspaper—first online, then also in print—that O'Rourke styled after alternative weeklies like the Village Voice and the New York Press, mixing cultural boosterism, serious reportage, and personal essays. (Pat O'Rourke filed dozens of dispatches from a cross-country bicycle trip he took during the summer of 2000.) Much of the content was earnest, but O'Rourke didn't shy away from provocation. The cover of one of Stanton Street's print issues depicted an El Paso Times newspaper box, under the headline "Down the Tubes."

This would prove to be the last time O'Rourke publicly gave the finger to the Man. In 2001 El Paso experienced a political upheaval in the mayoral candidacy of Ray Caballero, a trial lawyer who pledged to revitalize downtown, create more robust public transportation and city infrastructure, fight against cheaply built sprawl, and de-emphasize industrial production. "There was this reawakening that Caballero was able to articulate: that we're a great city and we need to act like a great city, and we should expect greatness out of ourselves," O'Rourke remembered. "I had heard my dad say things like that, but I had never heard someone make that the essence of their campaign. It was this massive catalyst for young people."

Caballero won with over 60 percent of the vote, but as mayor he was seen as heavy-handed and aloof, and he lost his bid for reelection. Out of the wreckage of the Caballero administration, Byrd, O'Rourke, and several other like-minded young professionals—among them lawyer Steve Ortega and former Caballero staffer Veronica Escobar—began meeting regularly to discuss how they could do grassroots work to achieve the policy goals Caballero could not: more conscientious urban planning, a more diversified economy with more highly skilled jobs, and an end to the kind of systemic corruption that had long permeated the city leadership.

Up to this point, few of O'Rourke's friends had pegged him as a future politician. Stevens remembered O'Rourke in high school and college as friendly but introverted. "He's basically a shy person who has gradually become what he is now," Stevens told me. But as O'Rourke became more civically engaged in El Paso with Byrd, Ortega, and Escobar, he and the rest of the group began thinking about running for office. First O'Rourke set his sights on county judge, the position his father had held. But the rest of the group talked him out of it.

"I will never forget—Beto, Steve, Susie, and I sat around a table at a coffee shop, and I remember telling Beto you can get so much more done as a slate on city council than you can as county judge," Escobar told me. O'Rourke said he'd think about it. Caballero followed up with a phone call. ("I told him, 'No, no, no, we need you on city council,' " Caballero remembered.) O'Rourke agreed to run, taking on incumbent Anthony Cobos in the South-West District.

The race quickly turned personal. O'Rourke had been arrested for attempted forcible entry on the UTEP campus in 1995 and stopped for a DWI in 1998. Both charges were dismissed, but Cobos, who was later found guilty of corruption and embezzlement, hammered O'Rourke with them.

"They were debating on Channel 7, and Cobos was like, 'You're an alcoholic—why don't you tell people about your alcohol problem?' " Anthony Martinez, an El Paso lawyer who wrote for O'Rourke at Stanton Street, remembered. "Beto was completely cool, and that's one of the moments that I realized: he can do this."

O'Rourke, Byrd, and Ortega all won their races (Escobar, who is now running for O'Rourke's seat in Congress, would later become county judge), and the group quickly became known as the Progressives, an accurate moniker that their critics often used derisively. Like Caballero, they believed unapologetically in using government power to bring about change, whether that meant advocating for the development of walkable communities or pushing to give benefits to the domestic partners of gay city employees. And like Caballero, they ran into fierce resistance from people who viewed them as know-it-all upstarts.

In 2006, the group championed a public-private redevelopment that would welcome a sports arena, hotels, big-box retailers, and an arts walk to downtown and southside El Paso. O'Rourke saw the plan as a way to "bring life and energy and vitality" to an area of the city that had long been characterized by abandoned buildings and shuttered stores. But entrenched property owners believed the plans represented an existential threat to their businesses; Chicano activists saw an aggressive gentrification that would "de-Mexicanize" the historic Segundo Barrio neighborhood, some of which was slated to be razed and rebuilt; and soon both groups mounted an offensive against the council members, accusing them of doing the bidding of a cabal of billionaire developers. O'Rourke responded by attending forums hosted by the business owners and walking door-to-door in the Segundo Barrio neighborhood to hear residents' concerns—he found that most of them supported some kind of redevelopment—but the battle lines had already been drawn, and his opponents saw his listening tour as a cynical act.

"He was the young Kennedy progressive going to slums, offering a better perspective," David Romo, a historian and activist who fought against the plan, told me. "That was the narrative that he was very good at promoting, but it was all false, it was all a mask. He made himself the absolute good guy and everyone who was fighting against displacement was the bad guy."

That May, another El Paso activist initiated a recall campaign against O'Rourke. When the recall fizzled, the downtown property owners filed two ethics complaints against him, citing conflicts of interest because his father-in-law, prominent real estate investor William Sanders, was one of the key businessmen behind the plan. After an independent ethics-review commission dismissed the charges against him, O'Rourke denounced what he saw as a coordinated campaign of "character assassination and political intimidation."

To this day, the fight produces strong reactions. Romo refuses to call O'Rourke Beto, because he sees the name as an act of cultural appropriation by "someone who betrayed our trust." O'Rourke's many supporters see him as someone who genuinely, even idealistically, thought the plan would be good for the city and got badly mischaracterized. "They slandered the heck out of Beto," Martinez said. "Beto was somebody who believed in downtown. There isn't a gentrification bone in his body."

Parts of the proposed downtown plan have come to fruition, but the full scope of the redevelopment never happened, felled principally by the 2008 financial crash. By then, O'Rourke's path out of the insular world of city politics and toward the U.S. Congress was beginning to take shape. In January 2009, the city council took up a purely symbolic resolution pertaining to cross-border relations, and O'Rourke offered a purely symbolic amendment encouraging an "honest, open national debate on ending the prohibition on narcotics." After the city council unanimously voted in its favor, O'Rourke's amendment made headlines and earned scorn from the city's congressman, Silvestre Reyes, who called up individual members to pressure them into removing their support. (Reyes claimed that the federal government might withhold stimulus funds from the city.) The next month, O'Rourke heard Reyes liken the out-of-control drug violence in neighboring Ciudad Juárez to the Bruce Willis movie Last Man Standing. Afterward, O'Rourke said to the El Paso Times that Reyes's idea "that we stand back and let people duke it out is not showing leadership."

O'Rourke talked openly about running against Reyes in the Democratic primary in 2010, but he decided against it. Over the following year, O'Rourke co-authored with Byrd the book Dealing Death and Drugs, which argues in favor of marijuana legalization; left the council at the end of his term; and began to prepare for his next political act. By 2012, he was ready to take on Reyes, and the race rehashed much of O'Rourke's political career to that point. Jesús "Chuy" Reyes, the congressman's brother and campaign manager, wrote on Facebook, "We are going to kick some drug pushing, drunk driving, burglarizing ass," taking up the line of attack that Cobos had deployed unsuccessfully. Ads and online videos—one was called "Billionaires for Beto Campaign Video (Beto & Bill's Big Adventure)"—recycled the accusations from the downtown fight. With Byrd running O'Rourke's field operation and Escobar running communication, Reyes modified the old "Progressives" slur and likened O'Rourke and his friends to pacoteros, a slang term that the congressman defined as individuals who will "gang up on one person because they can't do it one-on-one."

Reyes had served in Congress since 1997, and although he eventually picked up endorsements from both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, there were plenty of reasons to think that he was vulnerable. Reyes was seen as distant by many constituents, he had mostly stopped holding town hall meetings, and while he had seniority in Congress, he could be less than impressive, whiffing on a question about whether Al Qaeda's ideology was Sunni or Shiite after he was named chairman of the House Intelligence Committee.

Facing the first serious challenge of his congressional career, Reyes ran a lackluster campaign. His ads enlisting children to shout "No!" at O'Rourke's supposed plans for wholesale drug legalization were misleading, over-the-top, and tone-deaf. He didn't like block-walking. He rarely showed up at campaign forums, sending staffers to take his place in debates against O'Rourke. Meanwhile, O'Rourke was knocking on every door he could find, he was citing a Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington report questioning Reyes's payment of $600,000 in campaign funds to himself and his family members, and an anti-incumbent super PAC was spending $240,000 on the race, largely to fund an anti-Reyes advertising push.

But O'Rourke's greatest advantage in the race proved to be timing. With Texas's redistricting maps being challenged in federal court, the 2012 state primaries were pushed back from March 6 to May 29. When the votes were counted, O'Rourke had won 50.5 percent, just enough to avoid a runoff. In the heavily Democratic Sixteenth District, he cruised to victory in the fall.

"Those two additional months provided Beto with a little bit more time to knock on doors and engage people, and he just barely got that majority to win outright," Gregory Rocha, a University of Texas at El Paso political scientist, said. "If the election had been held in March, then I think Reyes would have won."

There was another upstart candidate challenging the party establishment in a primary that year who also benefited from the extended election to pull off a surprising victory. His name was Ted Cruz.

Posing for a photograph with his family and House Speaker Paul Ryan. Jose Luis Magana/AP

By the time O'Rourke delivered the birthday cake to Stephanie Franklin in Cuero, he had been on the road for 31 consecutive days, and he hadn't seen his family for a couple of weeks. O'Rourke has been a congressman for five years, which means that he has grown accustomed to spending most weekdays away from El Paso, but the Senate campaign had transformed his life into an almost completely itinerant existence.

"You can anticipate the rules of the road, travel, everything else, but not the emotional toll," O'Rourke said that night. "We're still a family, but we don't see each other anymore."

O'Rourke had just gotten off of a video call with his younger son, Henry, who had been crying hysterically after getting whacked by a gate in the family's yard. O'Rourke had done his best to calm him down and then said a quick good night to Amy. "Sometimes I call and can hear the exasperation in her voice," O'Rourke sighed.

O'Rourke was staying in a small cottage in Karnes City, preparing to return the next morning to Harvey-ravaged Southeast Texas. He had brought along a copy of the Odyssey, which he'd loved in college and was marveling at anew. "I read something like this, and I'm like, 'Why am I not reading this once a year?' " he said.

Lately O'Rourke had been trying to interest his son Ulysses in some of his all-time favorite books, but the ten-year-old hadn't taken to them. Then, while O'Rourke was on the road, Ulysses had called and said that he was reading Ursula Le Guin's O'Rourke-recommended Earthsea Trilogy. "It made me really happy," O'Rourke said. The congressman was planning to reread the books himself so he and Ulysses could discuss them.

When O'Rourke considered a run against Reyes in 2010, he'd viscerally experienced the clash between ambition and family. "I remember I was in Steve Ortega's office, and I was real angry about all the stuff going on in Juárez and how the congressman was treating it, and Steve said, 'You should run,' " O'Rourke said as we sat in the cottage. "I had never consciously thought about that, and it just hit me. I remember Amy was picking me up, and I went down from Steve's office and I said, 'Hey, Steve says that I should think about running for Congress,' and she just immediately started crying. It was so hurtful to her."

Two years later, Amy had come around to the idea of her husband going to Washington. But, O'Rourke said, the Senate race was the "first one where I felt like we both made the decision together." Still, it had proved taxing. "Unlike city council or Congress, I'm physically not there anymore. When a gate falls on Henry, Amy's like, 'It would be nice if you were here.' "

O'Rourke may very well be spending a lot of time at home soon. His path to victory is narrow. He needs to flip even more voters in the Houston and Dallas suburbs than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. He needs to run up the score in Texas's increasingly large, increasingly diverse cities. He needs to spur greater turnout among Mexican American voters. He needs to hope that his frequent trips to rural Texas will loosen the GOP's stranglehold on those precincts. In short, he needs to excite voters whom no recent Texas Democrat has excited and appeal to voters who have proved impossible for any recent Texas Democrat to reach.

For this to work, O'Rourke will need help. He will need the groundswell of volunteers that has come to his campaign so far to continue to grow during 2018. He will need the Trump administration to sink to unprecedented levels of unpopularity and take down the entire GOP with it. He will need to be proved eerily prescient in his sense that "there's clearly something happening right now." When the dust clears, O'Rourke needs to be historically right, and the Castro brothers and every other Texas Democrat who might want a higher office and sat out the 2018 elections need to be historically wrong.

If O'Rourke were to win, his political star would supernova. He would almost certainly be riding a wave of other improbable Democratic victories, but his victory would be the most improbable, and from the morning of Wednesday, November 7, 2018, onward, he would be viewed as presidential timber.

If O'Rourke loses, his future looks a lot murkier. Would he leave political life behind, or would he stick around? If he improved on Clinton's performance, would he use his defeat as the foundation of future campaigns? Would he have the fortitude and persistence of Ralph Yarborough, the East Texas liberal who lost three races for governor before emerging victorious in a 1957 Senate special election, eventually earning the honorific "the People's Senator"? Would O'Rourke step up and become the kind of inspirational leader the Texas Democratic Party hasn't had since Ann Richards?

Beto O'Rourke, photographed in Washington, D.C., on November 29, 2017. Photograph by Leann Mueller

When O'Rourke hosts out-of-town press in El Paso, he likes to take them across the border to Ciudad Juárez. When BuzzFeed came to write about him in 2014, O'Rourke led a trip to El Tragadero, a Juárez steakhouse where "the staff know the American congressman by name." When the Washington Post visited earlier this year, O'Rourke took the reporter to the Kentucky Club, the Juárez bar that reputedly invented the margarita and to which O'Rourke took Amy on their first date.

O'Rourke is a devotee of border history. He and his family live in a historic mission-style home that was the site of a 1915 meeting between U.S. Army General Hugh Scott and the famed Mexican revolutionary Pancho Villa. Despite the bad blood during the downtown redevelopment fight, O'Rourke recommends to friends David Romo's book Ringside Seat to a Revolution, an "underground history" of the El Paso–Juárez region around the time of the Mexican Revolution. When Ciudad Juárez took on the awful distinction of the world's murder capital in 2010, O'Rourke continued to visit, and as the city has become safer, he has embraced it as central to his platform.

"If Juárez is thriving, El Paso is thriving. And vice versa," he told BuzzFeed. "So we have a selfish interest in what happens in Juárez economically, and we have a human interest because it's who we are."

So it wasn't surprising that on a chilly late-October morning, O'Rourke got into running clothes and lined up at the start of the U.S.-Mexico 10K, which winds through both El Paso and Juárez.

When the race began, O'Rourke tried to capture the experience for his social-media followers, filming snippets of the action to put on Instagram. But as he cut through downtown, he put his phone away, picked up the pace, and charged up Stanton Street toward the Santa Fe Bridge.

"Beto!" a few people lining the thoroughfare shouted.

"Senator!" others called as he climbed the bridge and passed down into Mexico.

The route was full of memories. O'Rourke pointed out the Plaza de Toros Alberto Balderas, recalling the years when he would attend the bullfights there almost every week, writing a column about the experiences for Stanton Street. Less than a mile later, he ran in front of historic sites he'd visited as a boy: the Catedral de Ciudad Juárez, the Mercado Cuauhtémoc, the Museo de la Revolución en la Frontera.

The home stretch of the race was the wide expanse of the Avenida Benito Juárez, and by the time O'Rourke reached it, his mind was locked in a competitive zone. Every few seconds he would bellow out a battle cry, and as he ran past the famed Kentucky Club, with the finish line coming into view, he psyched himself up for the final push.

"Motherfucker," O'Rourke muttered to himself. And with that, he broke into a sprint, powering past a series of runners, vaulting up the incline of the bridge, and reaching the border, where the course ended. "That was my life force," he said after he'd caught his breath.

O'Rourke was the eighty-seventh out of more than a thousand runners to complete the race, but he stayed at the finish line until every competitor was done, talking with journalists, telling a Mexican TV station, in Spanish, that this 10K had shown that the border wasn't a threat but "una oportunidad," and posing for photos with admirers, constituents, Mexican politicians, Border Patrol agents, his congressional staff, and anyone else who wanted to capture a little bit of the Beto phenomenon. After 45 minutes of chatting and shaking hands and smiling, a Border Patrol agent told O'Rourke that they needed to clear the area. So O'Rourke found Amy, and they walked down the bridge, back to El Paso and America and a rare weekend at home. There were still twelve months left to go.